Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

详细化学反应机理对预混丙烷钝体熄火模拟影响

航空发动机熄火预测是重要关键问题之一，湍流和化学反应的非线性相互作用使预测非常困难。本文采用大涡模拟（LES）对湍流进行高精度模拟，采用概率密度函数输运方程湍流燃烧模型（TPDF）耦合JL4、Z66和H73三种化学反应机理，对预混丙烷钝体熄火现象和规律进行研究。JL4的反应机理最简单，反应释热快，局部放热高，火焰宽度大，火焰两侧温度梯度大，燃烧更加趋于稳定，无法模拟出熄火状态。H73机理绝热火焰温度低，火焰温度低，回流区中部OH含量高；在近熄火状态，大量CO被氧化，释放热量过高导致无法模拟出熄火现象。Z66机理可以模拟出火焰正常状态，在低当量比下也可以模拟出熄火状态。本文算例中，局部Da数大于1的区域超过35%则会发生熄火。     

Multi-faults diagnosis of rolling bearings via adaptive customization of flexible analytical wavelet bases

Multi-faults detection is a challenge for rolling bearings due to the mode mixture and coupling of multiple fault features, as well as its easy burying in the complex, non-stationary structural vibrations and strong background noises. In this paper, a method based on the flexible analytical wavelet transform (FAWT) possessing fractional scaling and translation factors is proposed to identify multiple faults occurred in different components of rolling bearings. During the route of the proposed method, the proper FAWT bases are constructed via genetic optimization algorithm (GA) based on maximizing the spectral correlated kurtosis (SCK) which is firstly presented and proved to be efficient and effective in indicating interested fault mode. Via using the customized FAWT bases for each interested fault mode, the original vibration measurements are decomposed into fine frequency subbands, and the sensitive subband which enhances the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is selected to exhibit the fault signature on its envelope spectrum. The proposed method is tested via simulated signals, and applied to analyze the experimental vibration measurements from the running roller bearings subjected to outrace, inner-race and roller defects. The analysis results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in identifying multi-faults occurred in different components of rolling bearings.     

Fault mode probability factor based fault-tolerant control for dissimilar redundant actuation system

This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor (FMPF) based Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System (DRAS) composed of Hydraulic Actuator (HA) and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA). The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window (MW) method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

基于随机维纳过程的航空发动机性能衰退研究

针对发动机下发间隔预测的问题，研究了发动机性能衰退规律。基于发动机排气温度裕度（EGTM）数据，建立了随机维纳模型，并使用严酷度因子修正模型，表征不同的工作条件对发动机的影响。利用期望最大化（EM）算法结合贝叶斯定理，对模型参数求解，最终得到了基于性能衰退的发动机平均下发间隔。研究结果表明，在严酷度因子为1.2696的使用条件下，某型号航空发动机性能衰退平均下发间隔为8219循环；基于该模型预测的发动机平均下发间隔与厂商建议的下发时间之间的误差仅为1.7%。     

多梁复合结构的动力学建模及全局解析振型分析

多梁复合结构广泛用于工程领域，其动力学特性对相关装备的工作状况有着重要影响，建立准确适用的动力学模型对后续的动力学响应参数影响规律研究有决定性作用。针对工程中常见的多梁复合结构，给出了位移场的一般表达式，利用哈密顿原理得出多梁复合结构的运动控制方程和边界条件，对其全局解析振型进行理论计算，给出了计算多梁复合结构数值振型的一般过程，基于数值分析和实验分析以L型梁和Z型梁为例利用频率相对误差、振型定性比较和MAC定量分析说明了全局解析振型的求解验证方法，利用伽辽金方法和全局解析振型给出了截断原系统得到离散系统运动方程的一般形式。提出的多梁复合结构的建模方法和全局解析振型求解验证方法，对工程中此类结构动力学响应的参数影响规律研究有重要意义。     

利用地月间空间站的载人登月飞行模式分析

为提高空间站利用率，降低载人登月任务成本，有效开发地月空间，研究了基于地月空间不同轨道空间站的载人登月飞行模式。首先对比直接往返登月飞行模式，对基于空间站的载人登月飞行模式进行任务分析，通过空间站将载人登月任务解耦为载人天地往返任务和登月任务两部分；其次通过轨道设计和稳定性分析提出考虑登月任务需求的地月间空间站可运行轨道和停泊点；最后建立一套飞行模式评价模型，从速度增量需求、飞行时间、空间环境、登月任务窗口、测控条件、交会对接技术难度、后续任务支持性和任务可靠性方面对6种不同位置空间站的登月飞行模式进行分析和定量评价。评价结果表明基于L2点Halo轨道空间站的载人登月飞行模式为更优飞行模式。     

HML系统在商店偏好决策模型中的应用研究

对混合式机器学习系统（HML）进行了全面系统的介绍，并将其运用于服装消费商店偏好决策行为的研究中。采用上海统计局家庭调查网络，对300户家庭进行抽样分析后发现，服装消费商店偏好的主要影响因素是地区、季节、丈夫和妻子的学历、职业以及子女性别。在此基础上，将HML分析所得的结论与传统的研究方法和结果进行了系统比较：从方法上来看，因为属性变量包含间断变量和连续变量两种，因此传统统计分析要运用两种不同的检测方法对影响因素的相关性作出判断，结果需要经过统计学分析，才能得到结论；而HML分析结果比较直观和简单，便于理解。     

美国MTS公司应用软件在测试上的应用

介绍了用美国ＭＴＳ公司的平面应变断裂韬度测试软件，对ＴＣ４合金进行ＫＩＣ测试的过程及结果。     

基于磁场映像的印制电路板故障诊断方法研究

简要分析了印制电路板的电磁场，提出了用电磁感应法测量磁场的电咱故障诊断新方法，并给出了测试系统组成方案。最后通过验证实验证明了该方法是确实可行的。